2019 was a year of uncertainty and crisis both for the government and the opposition. Both have now pinned their hope on 2020 for the breakthrough that has eluded them so far.
While Prime Minister Imran Khan expects his government to consolidateits position in the new year, the opposition sees elections in 2020 and PTI falling from power.
The last 12 months were tough going for the PTI government. 2019 was a year of unrelenting economic crunch. Under IMF diktat, the economy shrank and the rupee depreciation impacted the poorest segments of society, leading to widespread job losses and double-digit inflation.
The acclaimed macroeconomic stability and shrinking current account deficit brought little relief to the common man who was doubly hit by spiraling prices of essential article and rising utilities rates.The government’s ‘anti-corruption’ campaign raged on inexorably but without producing any results.All important opposition leaders, taken into custody by NAB, ANF, FIA cases, have been released on bail as the prosecution could not prove its case.
NAB’s impartiality has been increasingly questioned as the anti-corruption body so far has not taken any action against key members of the governmentaccused of wrong doing. Independent analysts say that the government’s latest ordinance curtailing NAB’s powers is designed to win over support of the business community and the civil service both of whom have complained of unnecessary harassment by the accountability juggernaut.
But it is doubtful if this will help kick-start a moribund economy which has been in a state of freeze during the last one year. If the government has lost popular support it has none but itself to blame. Tougher times will be ahead In recent months, all major political leaders, including Bilawal Bhutto, Maulana Fazlur Rahman and some PML-N leaders, have repeatedly said that 2020 would be the year of change in government and fresh elections.
When Maulana Fazlur Rahman descended on Islamabad with his hordes of followers and asked the Prime Minister to step down, it seemed the D-day had come. But what had started with a bang soon ended in a whimper. The Maulana departed under the cover of continuing his campaign through other means which never materialized.
Now the same tune is being sung by PML-N leaders who are predicting the collapse of the government in the coming months. But on the other hand the party high ups, including Maryam Nawaz, are keeping a mysterious silence on the current situation. No wonder, there is loud talk of palace intrigue and backroom deals in the country’s political and media circles. This raises the question: Has the narrative of Shahbaz Sharif, who has always advocated a non-confrontation policy towards the Establishment, finally won?The bail granted to Nawaz Sharif ostensibly on health grounds lends credence to this interpretation of the events.
It is claimed that Shahbaz Sharif secured the permission for his elder brother to travel abroad for treatment. As of now, the party rank and file are in a state of confusion. The hard-liners are of the opinion that the perception about PML-N having cut a deal with the government will weaken its position among the voters.
Against this background, the new year will severely test the mettle of party leadership. Since her release on bail,Maryam Nawaz has kept silent, saying that her father’s health is her top priority. But if Nawaz Sharif’s treatment takes too long and he does not return home soon, questions will arise in the mind of party supporters, undermining their morale. It is not as yet clear how Maryam will resolve the dilemma.
In short, all political parties, whether in power or in the opposition, will be tested in the new year as for their capacity to survive in the political game of one-upmanship. The PTI has lost much of its political capital due to its many acts of omission and commission. On the other hand, PML-N faces a serious crisis of leadership. As for PPP, whether Bilawal Bhutto can restore the party to its lost glory is open to question, especially as besides PML-N, PTI too has also emerged as a strong force in the Punjab.
In short, political confrontation and uncertainty will remain the name of the game in 2020.
Nasim Ahmed